Skimming off the cream while we still can

Open borders with young and culturally homogeneous people can save Britain from demographic disaster

In his new book, No One Left, Paul Morland makes the case that the world is facing ‘a demographic abyss’ if it does not avert declining fertility. According to him, ‘immigration is not the solution’, and, he’s right to think so for countries such as China where there simply aren’t enough immigrants to go round. Yet in Britain there remains an opportunity to save ourselves from this demographic disaster via skimming the cream off the world while we still can via having open borders with young, high skill, culturally homogeneous groups. We should grasp it with both hands, and, grasp it fast.

In Britain today the fertility rate of each woman is 1.44 and the old age dependency ratio is 33.20%, i.e., the number of over-65s to working people is 33.20 to 100. By 2067 these figures are forecast to change to 1.35 and 40% respectively. The national debt is forecast to rise to 233% by the same time too; necessitating national debt interest climbing to 9% of GDP which would overtake total pension spending. According to the Resolution Foundation, hardly a think tank opposed to higher state spending, ‘the implied path of spending for the future welfare state is unsustainable’. And by 2100 fertility is due to decline to 1.30 and the old-age dependency ratio become 50%. Astounding figures.

Why does this spell demographic disaster? Well, it will put immense strain on public services and particularly on healthcare for the elderly because the labour supply will simply be very, very tight, and, the taxation required to support these expensive services simply will not be there (or, taxes will have to go up hugely). To cite from Morland’s book, those in their late eighties and older ‘require six or seven times as much health spending as those in the prime of their life’ and the number of these older citizens is set to ballon from about 1.5m today to 6m by the end of the century. Solutions to increasing fertility are few and far between and Morland seems to think that a large part of the reason for low fertility is women rejecting their traditional role as housewives. He writes:

‘In a nutshell, modern societies are trying to balance two potentially contradictory things: on the one hand the education of women and their full participation in the workforce and at every level in society, and on the other the unchanging biological reality of birthing and all that means.’ (210)

Britain need not increase its low fertility rate to avoid the real problem of a deteriorating old-age dependency ratio however. What it can do instead is cream off the world by having open borders with young, high skill, broadly culturally homogeneous groups. We should have open borders with European countries such as Poland, Lativia, Lithuania, Estonia and Ukraine. Those South American countries which share a European history such as Chile and Argentia should also see freedom of movement with us too. Importantly, only young people should be allowed into the country, and, should the choice be between high skill or low skill immigrants we should welcome just the high skill ones. This will only become more pressing as the biggest cohort of baby boomers from 1964 start to retire in a few years time. Why is a libertarian writing this?

Along with Bryan Caplan, I am a proponent of open borders on the basis of each individua’s natural right to freedom of association with consenting parties wherever they happen to live. I am here engaging in nonideal theory, i.e., considering what can be done given political circumstances which still approaches justice. A plus of this nonideal policy is the freedom destroying voting of Eastern people is less likely to take root. Obviously, an increased population which still maintains social democratic sentiments will mean taxes can be lower than they would be otherwise. On reflection maybe avoiding high taxes is my main reason for supporting this liberal policy in nonideal theory, indeed, yes, it must be.

Now obviously immigration is unpopular at the moment, hence, Reform is on the rise. Fortunately, though, among elites, or, David Goodhart’s ‘Nowheres’, it remains popular. Yet I still think this liberal policy is at least possibly implementable in practice, especially if the right of British politics remains split and Labour alone or in combination with the Liberal Democrats can form the next government. It should be remembered 48% of people voted to remain in the EU with its freedom of movement. Taking the next ten years as the possible time range for Labour and the Liberal Democrats to implement this liberal policy, and, assuming net migration stays at the 764,000 achieved in 2022, the bottom of our population pyramid could be fattened by 7.64milion. Too.

Crucially, Britain needs to implement this liberal policy now. This is so for at least two reasons. One, as the world becomes wealthier Britain’s wages will look relatively less attractive to Western countries as time goes on. This is already the case across much of Europe: In 2002 Polish GDP per capita was a fifth of Britain’s while today it is four fifths. Two, Europe will have to increasingly adopt my idea to deal with its demographic problems, so, getting off the blocks now ensures we can get the clotted cream of people, so to speak, off the world first.

Even from an ethno-nationalist perspective it is much better to have people from the same blood and soil come back to Britain now than to potentially have to rely on African immigration later. And as the cost of social care increases immensely, I suspect the sense of entitlement among older people we have seen over the winter fuel allowance will only become greater and simply override any antiimmigration sentiment that may remain (which, I think, ethno-nationalists would agree is declining in the population). Why not just have open borders? I think where there is a large visual change in the nature of the communities people would object to too great an extent.

There are three choices and two hopes for people concerned with Britain’s demographic situation. Open borders, massive tax rises on ordinary people to support pensions, or, massive reductions to all forms of pensions (including private pensions). The two hopes are fertility rates can be increased and economic growth significantly boosted. Failing those last prospects being realised, people need to choose between one of the three options I have outlined.